How Will Immigration Issue Break - Road to the Middle Class

ON MONDAY APRIL 10th, the streets of America were again filled with demonstrators demanding U.S. citizenship for illegal immigrants. The battle of immigration continues.

There are two questions here. How will the demonstrations affect the fate of immigration bills now in Congress, and what will be the political effect down the road?

Democrats are encouraged by the demonstrations. Writes Charles Hurt in the Washington Times,

Democrats on Capitol Hill favoring citizenship for illegal aliens say they have been buoyed by the massive rallies across the country... Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Massachusetts Democrat and a leading backer of such legalization bills, invoked civil rights icon Martin Luther King when he spoke at yesterday's rally on the Mall.

But then Democrats love huge political demonstrations. It reminds them of their finest hour in the 1960s civil rights revolution. Indeed, a show of force in the streets always sways the political class. It instinctively yields to the most passionate political actors. We can expect a comprehensive immigration reform of some kind this year, one that addresses border security and also addresses legalization of residency status.

The other question is the overall political effect on the 50-50 nation. In the New York Post John Podhoretz takes the organizers of the demonstrations to task. If the Democrats think it will help them at the polls they are wrong. �They are riling up the GOP base, which has been pretty disheartened lately and needed a bit of riling.� But when it comes to the long term political impact Podhoretz reserves judgment.

The direction all this will take in years to come is unknowable. It may align Hispanics with the Democrats in the long term. On the other hand, it may drive more Democratic voters of modest means into the Republican camp, offsetting the Democratic gain.

Exit poll data show that Hispanics vote more Republican the more they prosper. Only blacks remain Democrat whatever their economic status. So what would happen if blacks decided that a pro-immigrant Democratic Party was an anti-African American party?

The truth is, we don�t know. The outcome of every battle is unknowable until it is over.

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Christopher Chantrill blogs at www.roadtothemiddleclass.com. His Road to the Middle Class is forthcoming.

Comments:

Posted by: Patricia Stokley on 04/24/06 1:08pm

Does anybody remember the Alamo? I bet if I hung the iraq flag (not on your or mine life) I would be strung up by the neck for sure. This is America not mexico. Hanging another flag other than the Red, White, and Blue is Treason. Ask those silly people If we were to go to war with mexico, Which side would they protect and defend. Remember The Alamo?

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